Why Has The Boeing 787-10 Not Seen The Same Commercial Success As Its Smaller Counterparts?

Photo: Thanhliemnguyen & Kevin Hackert | Shutterstock, Simple Flying

 

When Boeing's 787 Dreamliner first entered service in 2011 with Japanese flag carrier All Nippon Airways (ANA), the jet was set to change the nature of commercial aviation with game-changing range and efficiency. The aircraft was predicted to remold route networks with an increased focus on point-to-point traffic that could now be profitably served using the long-haul, ultra-efficient, medium-capacity jet that was the Boeing 787, abandoning many elements of traditional hub-and-spoke networks for good.

Over the last fifteen years, Boeing has produced more than 1,000 787 aircraft, almost all of which remain in service today with airlines across the group, many of which have come to rely on the aircraft. The 787 itself also created an entirely new kind of carrier, the long-haul low-cost airline, which could now exist due to the plane's increased efficiency, which resulted in far lower per-seat operating costs on average than any widebody to hit the market before it.

Despite several teething issues, the 787 Dreamliner quickly became Boeing's most successful aircraft, especially as soon as the Boeing 737 MAX family began having safety-related issues. Today, with its order backlog still massive and no recurrent safety issues, the Boeing 787 single-handedly is propping up the Seattle-based manufacturer's commercial offerings, which have faced endless struggles over the past few years.

A family with a rockstar, a happy middle child, and a disappointing third member

The Boeing 787-9, the original variant of the family, remains the most popular and efficient medium-sized widebody aircraft in the skies today and has become one of the most ordered widebody jets of all time. The smaller Boeing 787-8 offers airlines a lower-capacity variant, which involves sacrificing around 250 nautical miles worth of range as smaller fuel tanks were required for the shorter jet.

Nonetheless, the 787-8 has enjoyed strong commercial success over the years, and its lighter capacity allows airlines to ensure that they achieve the higher load factors they are looking for. At the same time, the plane's significantly lower maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) also allows carriers to save money on landing fees.

There is one variant of the 787 family, however, which has been significantly less successful than the rest of the family, something which stands as a slight stain on an otherwise tremendously successful program. The Boeing 787-10, which was longer and accommodated more passengers, entered service with Singapore Airlines on April 3rd, 2018. However, the plane would never perform quite as well as its siblings in the sales department. Let's take a deeper look at the factors that affected the 787-10's poorer performance.

Just how much did the 787-10 underperform?

Let's begin by examining the sales for all the different variants of the 787 program. The table below demonstrates the total deliveries and outstanding orders for Dreamliners over time:

787 Family Variant:

Total Orders:

Total Deliveries:

Outstanding Orders:

Boeing 787-8	431	397	34
Boeing 787-9	1,243	639	604
Boeing 787-10	263	114	149

As we can note from this table, the Boeing 787-9's popularity with operators cannot be understated, as it offers the best fuel efficiency and range. Typically, when an aircraft program is developed, the original variant, the one that has been neither stretched nor shortened, is the most popular, and this is often by design. When an airframe is designed, it is typically optimized for performance and efficiency.

Once a manufacturer has a baseline aircraft, they will consider whether enough demand from customers exists for them to develop a shortened or lengthened variant. When an airframe is shortened or elongated, efficiency typically falls, as the aircraft is no longer optimized. As a result, the shortened or lengthened aircraft variants typically encounter weaker sales performance. According to manufacturer Boeing, the 787-9 has the best range of the three models, able to fly up to 7,565 nautical miles, while the 787-10 performs the worst in this category with a range of just 6,330 nautical miles.

This does not answer the question of why the 787-8 was still more popular than the 787-10

However, the Boeing 787-8 still outperformed the 787-10 by a significant margin, even though neither is the original most-optimized variant of the family. One of the primary reasons for this is the fact that the 787-8 faces extremely limited market competition, while the 787-10 has to compete with more Airbus jets. We can see exactly why this is the case from the table below:

Aircraft type:

Typical passenger capacity:

Boeing 787-8	248
Airbus A330-800neo	240
Boeing 787-10	336
Airbus A330-900neo	300
Airbus A350-900	315
Airbus A350-1000	370

The Boeing 787-8 faces relatively limited market competition, as the only aircraft offered by Airbus in a similar capacity range is the A330-800. This plane, the shortened variant of Airbus' mildly successful A330neo family, has been extremely unsuccessful, as it fails to match the efficiency offered by Boeing's 787. Business Insider actually referred to the aircraft as a "commercial failure," noting that it only managed to attract one order in 2023.

The 787-10 has to compete with Airbus' best commercial offerings

The Boeing 787-10, however, is in a capacity range where it is forced to compete not just with the Airbus A330-900neo, the more successful variant of the A330neo family, but also multiple A350 variants. The A350-900 and the A350-1000 are the European manufacturer's flagship widebodies and are some of the most efficient next-generation aircraft on the market today.

With ranges exceeding 8,000 nautical miles, Boeing's 787-10, with its range of just over 6,000 nautical miles, is in a very difficult position. As a result, the plane has failed to rack up orders the same way the 787-8 or 787-9 have.