Capacity Cuts: Scandinavia Has Lost Over A Million Seats Amid Russian Airspace Closures

Russia's ongoing military action in Ukraine is continuing to have widespread implications as far as commercial aviation operations are concerned, even more than three years after the war began. Notably, the use of the country's airspace, as well as that of neighboring Belarus and Ukraine, has become extremely limited, with Russia imposing reciprocal closures on nations that have banned its aircraft.

For carriers flying between Europe and Asia, this has been a particular hindrance, as this is airspace that such flights would typically have used on a regular basis before the war began. As such, certain airlines have had to reroute flights around the airspace, sometimes necessitating a stopover , while others have withdrawn services entirely. Scandinavia has been hit particularly hard, with the region losing over a million departing seats in 2024 compared to pre-crisis levels.

Scandinavia Lost 1.2 Million Departing Seats Last Year

When the aviation industry began to bounce back from the standstill of the coronavirus pandemic, and the green shoots of a recovery began to emerge, optimism was high among carriers whose long-haul networks had been decimated by the global health crisis. However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 meant that intercontinental routes between Europe and Asia were restricted again.

The impacts of the airspace closures that have arisen as a result of the conflict are now becoming clear, with a recent report by SAS noting that Scandinavia's capacity was down by 1.2 million departing seats compared to pre-crisis levels in 2024. Commenting on the ongoing situation, Mads Brandstrup Nielsen, who serves as the Senior Vice President of Public Affairs at Scandinavian Airlines, explained that:

"As long as Russian airspace remains closed, this imbalance will persist. While we remain committed to connecting Scandinavia to Asia, the industry needs a level playing field to ensure long-term sustainability, fair competition, and reliable connectivity for our customers."

The Challenges Posed By The Airspace Closures Are Multifaceted

It is worth noting that not all of the 1.2 million missing seats are on routes that serve the market between Scandinavia and Asia, with, as we shall discuss, other factors also playing an important role. Still, according to scheduling data made available by Cirium, an aviation analytics company, this market alone had almost 500,000 fewer departing seats in 2024 than in 2019. The rundown is shown below.

The latest report from SAS asserts that the region's capacity loss is "a direct consequence of closed airspace over Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine." Further afield, the carrier also cites "broader geopolitical instability in Asia and the Middle East" as having been a contributing factor. This has been evidenced recently by the Pakistani airspace closure that has forced Indian flights to take longer routes.

Citing its own route from Copenhagen Kastrup Airport (CPH) to Shanghai Pudong (PVG) as an example, Scandinavian Airlines says that operating this corridor amid the ongoing airspace closures "would now involve up to two extra hours of flight time each way." The resulting "higher fuel consumption, reduced aircraft and crew efficiency, increased operating costs, and decreased cargo payload" subsequently serves to "undermine the competitiveness of European carriers" on these routes.

Year

Departing Seats On Scandinavia-Asia Flights

2019	1,311,866
2020	373,796
2021	176,038
2022	316,138
2023	568,899
2024	838,301

European Carriers' Losses Are Asian Carriers' Gains

Given the challenges mentioned above, it is unsurprising to read that, in light of these constraints, SAS does not plan to operate any direct flights to or from China in 2025. Still, the Danish, Norwegian, and Swedish flag carrier is bullish about its prospects on other Asian routes, and is excited to "open a new route to Seoul in September 2025," a corridor where "all airlines face similar operating conditions."

Contrastingly, Asian carriers have been able to reap rewards from the situation surrounding the airspace closure, as these bans do not restrict them in the same way. On this front, SAS notes that "Chinese carriers have increased capacity on the same routes" that it has had to reduce capacity on or withdraw altogether. As such, the ability for these airlines to overfly restricted regions is, as it stands, giving them a market advantage. It will be interesting to see how the situation develops.